23^rd April 2010

Demand for pigs today proved to be rather like the weather……....pleasant for those prepared to sit it out.

The gentle improvement of the DAPP which now stands at 143.55p helped to set the trend for spot buyers and very few were able to open their account at less than 143p with a copper or two more available for special jobs.

A slight easing in the value of the € which closed the week worth 86.9p compared with 87.6p seven days earlier also increases the threat of much cheaper EU imports continuing to penetrate the domestic market and UK bacon sellers are now enjoying a premium of something like 25p/kg compared with their European counterparts.

This is no time to gloat but to keep anxiously looking over our shoulder as even enhanced UK spec pigs still remain vulnerable to cheaper foreign substitutes.

The sow market continues to underline the wide gap between EU mainland and UK pigmeat values with 100p/kg now closer to a top bid than a base price with reports of some outlets trying to buy in the 96p – 98p region, but perhaps not getting the numbers required.

The weaner shortage continues to bite and as a result prices are tending firmer with the AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average now standing at £54.40/head and it will be interesting to see what it has reached when all meet up at the Pig Fair in just under 3 weeks time.

Producers should however keep a wary eye on the cereals market where wheat prices have been stealthily increasing albeit at a very modest rate with ex farm feed wheat now quoted on a spot basis at £94.60/tonne up from £88.00/tonne in late February.

Those producers now setting up Anaerobic Digesters might decide if they can find a suitable use for all the hot air being produced by our Politicians at present in the lead up to the General Election.  Suggestions on a postcard please.

16^th April 2010

Unlike in the political arena, no great debate on pig prices this week with prices holding at very similar levels and the DAPP nudging ahead a shade to  stand at 143.9p.

Very much of a “one priced pig” on the menu with most spot bacon quotes at around the 143p mark and an odd copper or two extra in places where bells and whistle were available.

Although some abattoirs have been looking for increased numbers of pigs from outdoor and high welfare systems, we should not forget that the indoor units are also operating to very high standards and on welfare grounds are well ahead of their European counterparts.  This is a sector of the market that also needs to be supported by consumers, retailers and the pig industry as a whole.

Any further increase in the strength of the £ on the back of the outcome of the upcoming General Election would be unfortunate for the pig industry as a whole because a weaker € will inevitably lead to more cost cutting imports hitting these shores and reducing cull sows quotes, which are already almost 25p/kg behind their equivalent position a year ago.

The € closed on Friday worth 87.6p, which is almost exactly its value a week ago.

Cull sow quotes were in the 100p region for bigger loads on a flat rate spec reflecting downward pressure on the EU mainland pigmeat market whose customers are still able to buy US and Brazilian product at bargain basement prices.

Weaner prices however continue to reflect an upcoming shortage of UK pigs in the system with the AHDB 30kg ex farm average now standing at £54.21/head and this sector is reflecting bullish (pardon the mixed metaphor) trends.

And for those of you worried about the dust cloud heading down from the north, this cannot surely be liked to a rare report that Digby McScott was seen to open his wallet recently?

 9^th April 2010

Pig prices have emerged unscathed from the Easter holiday period with plenty of signs that in the weeks ahead demand may well exceed supply and this was reflected by the generally positive nature of trading today.

Although some of the smaller fresh meat wholesalers are still complaining that high street demand is slow, once again the big supermarket suppliers are leading the field and with the DAPP now up to 143.25p spot buyers in many cases had to match this if they were looking for numbers, although others were still bidding below 140p in some regions.

If the present warm spell continues some barbeques will soon be fired up on the nation’s patios, which should also help demand especially at a time when beef and more particularly lamb are very expensive.

For those of you with a keen interest in sheep (?) deadweight old season lambs are now trading at circa 430p/kg, which means that compared with lamb, pigs are a good case of Buy One and Get Two Free.

A recent mini rally in the strength of the £ remains something of a worry and a surprise, with the € worth 87.5p, which is 1.5% less than its value a week ago.

Although this allows imports to head this way with the benefit of a further 1.5% discount, this appeared to have little effect on what is now becoming something of a niche market as far as UK pigs are concerned.

But the rise in the value of sterling combined to push down cull sow quotes by between 1 – 2p and 100p per kg now represents more of a top than a base price.

Weaner prices continue to paint a rosy picture and the AHDB 30kg ex farm average has now reached £54.20/head, but this is still slightly lower than a year ago when the average was £55.10/head, but the DAPP was also higher at 145.8p.

Cereal prices rallied slightly last week and ex farm feed wheat is now being quoted at £91.80/tonne compared with £88/tonne at the start of the month and worth buying at this level.

1^st April 2010

Although any seller who accepted less than 140p for spot bacon might be described as an April Fool, as it turned out despite the upcoming holiday period every pig was sold and although we are still receiving reports of a slightly indifferent demand at the fresh meat end of the market, very few cases of spot baconers being sold for less than 142p.

The DAPP continues to nudge ahead and now stands at 142.51p and the Tulip base price remained at a firm stand on of 144p.

Only fairly modest premiums of 4 – 6p available for gilts and lighter weights, but those producers with Freedom Food standard pigs will soon be able to name their price as demand in this sector continues to rise.

The mysterious increase in the strength of Sterling continues and as a result the € has lost 2% in value over the last week and now stands at 88.7p, which has done nothing to help on the cull sow export front and also allows those dreaded imports to slip under our radar at less money.

With several large European cull sow processors shutting down over the Easter period demand has also be curtailed and as a result UK export abattoirs were not particularly keen to pay much more than 100p for cull sows compared with 122p a year ago, which is equivalent to a drop in value of over £30/head.

Weaner prices however continue to improve with the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm average now standing at £53.31/head, but these must come with an approved Circoflex type vaccine to be acceptable to many buyers.

The often unreported trade for 4 week old piglets is also hardening and they are now worth close to £40 in some regions according to numbers and quality.

Hopefully the stage is now set for the industry to spring into summer with prices at levels that may help to reward producers for all their past trials (but few tribulations), especially in the outdoor sector following last winter.

 26^th March 2010

Despite the “Long Weekend” looming all finished pigs found homes and as far as the spot market was concerned prices were at generally stand on levels of 142p influenced by the continuing improvement in the DAPP which now stands at 142.3p, which is almost exactly on a par with its value 12 months ago.

Although there were no fireworks in the market today these are predicted to occur once normal trading resumes based upon forecasts of UK pig numbers continuing to tighten following on from poor conception rates last autumn and the Artic weather conditions over Christmas and the New Year.

Those sellers on DAPP plus 2p will be paid at 144.3p which is very similar to the Tulip base price, which remains at 144p.

Lighter weights continue to earn modest premiums of 4 – 8p/kg, but in many cases it is tempting to take everything up to maximum bacon weight on a 14 probe.

No signs yet of any recovery in cull sow values, which remain the odd man out compared with finished pigs and weaners. 

Those of you with long memories will recall that this time last year cull sows were trading at 120p/kg, whereas today 100p/kg seemed to be the threshold price although shrewd sellers were generally able to haggle a few coppers more than this.  Demand was not helped by some of the major European cull sow processing factories being closed for much of the Easter period.

The value of the € has remained relatively firm closing on Friday worth 90.5p helped to some extent by “call me Darling’s” negative budget performance and ongoing worries about the near bankrupt state of the UK economy.

Weaner sellers continued to smile most of the way to the cash point machine with the AHDB 30kg average now standing at £53.51 and signs of further rises in the pipeline.

All in all the pig industry’s Easter egg is well over half full.

19^th March 2010

Quite a wide gap is opening up between the “haves and have nots”.

Pigs traded on contract are continuing to rise in value with the DAPP improving once again to 142.05p and the Tulip base price now almost 2p ahead of this.

Pigmeat prices remain dominated by the supermarket sector and some of the smaller wholesalers are still complaining that high street sales are slow with indifferent demand.

As a result there were some fairly wide variations in spot bacon quotes with reports in the region of 142p for bacon being fairly commonplace and premiums available in places for either lighter weights or gilts with some hard nosed buyers looking for soft sellers at below 140p earlier in the day, but few takers.

Unfortunately recent increases in the strength of the £ are allowing imports to trickle over at slightly less money and are also having a negative effect on cull sow quotes, although by Friday evening the € had recovered to 90.1p.

EU mainland cull sow prices are also reporting to be drifting downwards and this saw a slight reduction in UK export abattoir cull sow quotes of between 1 – 2p/kg.

Cull availability remains tight however and as a result no need to sell below 100p with modest premiums of 2 – 4p available for larger loads.

Weaner prices on the other hand continue to head skywards, although one or two buyers have not been prepared to go with the flow, so prices could be heading for something of a plateau.

The AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average now stands at £53.14/head, but this sector remains a seller’s market and even at this level providing feed prices remains static, there should be a useful margin for both buyers and sellers.

12^th March 2010

Earlier reports of a shortage of weaners in the system are starting to be felt in the finished pig market where numbers continue to tighten at a time of year when demand normally improves.

The DAPP continues to nudge ahead and now stands at 141.63p (compared with 140.61p a year ago) with spot quotes at almost exactly identical levels.

Although there are still reports of rather indifferent demand for both pigmeat and beef in the fresh meat sector, the big supermarkets and their processors suppliers are leading the field and as a result very few spot buyers who offered below 140p were able to find sellers who said “I do” with the usual modest premiums of 4 – 8p for gilts and lighter weights.

Uncertainty in the currency markets about the post general election period is continuing to put the £ under pressure to the benefit of the pig industry and the € ended the week worth 90.6p, which is just a shade up on its value a week ago.

Unfortunately on this occasion a stronger € has failed to have much effect on the cull sow market with reports that German prices have dropped by 4% this week.  Despite this most UK cull sow export abattoirs were trading anywhere between a hesitant stand on and 1 pee off in places.

Cull sow quotes on a delivered basis tended to be in the 102 – 104p range; although buyers would prefer to be able to buy sows at less than 100p to match EU values.

As commented earlier the weaner market continues to point the way as far as pig availability is concerned and the AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average has continued to move ahead and now stands at £52.76/head with premiums of £1/£2 available for bigger lots, but most buyers are now insisting that piglets (rather than sows) are PCV2 vaccinated.

The cereal sector remains a buyer’s market with ex farm feed wheat quoted for current delivery at just under £90/tonne and reports are still being received of relatively high on farm grain stocks, which should help to keep a lid on prices in the weeks ahead, especially when space has to be made for the 2010 harvest.

p.s.  Thanks to those of you who decided to wet their whistle at the Ampton Point-to-Point and my apologies for one of my tips which started at 10-1, but finished at 4.45 (geddit?).

5^th March 2010

A good start to the month with the DAPP nudging ahead to 141.34p (139.24p a year ago) and by noon most pigs had been sold with no signs of any carry over to the following week at a time when cold weather is continuing to hit growth rates and availability.  The forecast is for more price rises in the weeks ahead also reflecting firmer demand normally encountered in the early spring.

As a result there were very few cases of spot bacon trading at below 140p with a copper or two more available from those outlets who were still short of numbers, although with the growing trend for more and more pigs to be sold on contract, spot buyers and sellers are gradually finding themselves in something of a backwater.

Once again demand for pigmeat is being led by the major players supplying supermarkets and some of the smaller fresh meat wholesalers are still complaining that high street trade is slow and beef has also eased back from recent high levels confirming this point.

Lighter weight pigs and gilts continue to earn modest premiums of between 4 – 8p, but sometimes it is tempting to put everything on the bacon lorry where weights of up to 95kg d/wt are paid for in full, but there is still “trousers off” time for those whose pigs weigh more than 100kg d/wt entering a potentially costly no go zone.

Although a mini rally in the value of the € appears to have leveled out, further doubts over the value of Sterling saw the € rise from 89.6p in value last week to close on Friday worth 90.2p.

Despite reports of recent falls in EU mainland cull sow values which have dropped by up to 5 € Cents (4.5p in English) over the past week, a combination of a slightly stronger € and low sow availability saw demand remain firm in this sector with most quotes at positive stand on levels.

Sow prices of below 100p/kg are now a thing of the past and most sellers with reasonable sized loads were able to achieve in the 105p region on a flat rate basis or slightly more where weight/grade related.

Although cull sow quotes have improved by around 10p/k over the past four weeks, they are still lagging well behind their value a year ago where average quotes were circa 117p at a time when the € was worth less.

Weaner demand continues to reflect a shortage of numbers in the system and with over 40% of the breeding herd now kept outdoors, this is hardly surprising given recent artic weather conditions.

The AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average now stands at £52.69/head, which is £3/head higher than a year ago, but shrewd sellers are able to obtain significant premiums above this for large tail docked and vaccinated bunches.

“Buy now while stocks are there” is the message in the feed market because it is difficult to see how much longer wheat will be traded at below £90/tonne on an ex farm basis, although reports although reports of fairly high stocks still left on UK farms abound.

But as many feed compounders are quick to remind farmers, Soya is still expensive being traded at around the £300/tonne mark, but it is just a pity that cheaper alternatives cannot be found.

With margins and profitability returning to the UK pig industry, now might be the time for BPEX to consider some really active point of sale pigmeat promotion and a bolt on levy to cover the costs, which at 50p/pig would generate a weekly revenue of £80,000 that could be usefully spent on advertising (but not on Quangoes and internal costs) to further stimulate sales of high welfare UK pigmeat.

p.s. For those of you who like standing in muddy fields and watching your hopes and fivers hit the deck, I am sponsoring a race at Ampton (near Bury St Edmunds) Point-to-Point meeting this Sunday 7^th March and all clients, customers and rivals are welcome to enjoy (?) some (rare) Crichton hospitality in The Master’s Marquee from around 1.30 pm onwards. 

Good luck, but remember the downfall of many a good man has been slow horses and fast women!

26^th February 2010

Trading today turned out to be almost exactly as predicted with the recent lift in the DAPP which now stands at 141.2p and an increase in the Tulip base price to 143p helping to inject further confidence into the market, although there are still some reports of the smaller wholesalers finding it hard to move larger volumes.

As a result most spot quotes were anywhere between a positive stand on and 1 – 2p upwards and any spot bacon traded at less than 140p was probably undersold.

Lighter weights continued to earn a modest premium and for those producers prepared to split sex their pigs, there can sometimes be an extra 4 – 6p for gilts which can be sold a slightly lighter weights than heavy bacon boars as they tend to grade on the thicker side.

Another positive has been a further weakening in the value of the £ no doubt caused a certain lack of confidence in the UK economy, which is hardly surprising in the light of the relationship between “prudent Gordon” and “call me Darling”.

Since last Friday the € has risen in value from 87.6p to 89.6p, which has effectively put 2% on the cost of imports and added a similar amount to the value of our cull sows which (surprise surprise) moved up by around 2p this week.

Most cull sow quotes had a base price of 100p with another 2 – 4p available with all three major export abattoirs looking to up their throughputs.

Cull sow prices also are a more encouraging sign that EU pigmeat values are slowing increasing, although there is still a long way to go on this front.

Weaner prices continue to harden and the AHDB 30kg ex farm average now stands at £52.42/head, which contrasts with £49/head a year ago.

More shafts of sunlight continue to emerge in the feed supply sector where the ex farm feed wheat price has now dropped to circa £88/tonne and the time will soon be approaching for producers to make long term commitments because there would appear to be more upside than downside in the market with wheat at this level.

All in all a very positive end to February and providing retail demand continues to increase and the £ wobbles, the picture for spring (if it ever finally arrives) is reasonably positive.

19^th February 2010

For the glass half full merchants out there everything is starting to look a bit better with longer days, shorter nights, the Cheltenham Festival just around the corner and pig prices remaining firm despite some of the glass half empty pundits suggesting otherwise earlier in the week.

Pig sellers should have the following three words engraved on their foreheads.  No not “Health & Safety”, but “pigs are short”.

All the reports being received from breeding units are that numbers will tighten in the weeks ahead with fewer pigs being weaned, the effects of last autumn’s infertility still in the system and no significant increase in the size of the domestic herd.

Although the UK pig market still remains vulnerable to imports, EU pigmeat prices have started to show a slightly firmer trend and the same applies to EU mainland cull sow values.

The DAPP also put on a little more ground this week to stand at 140.77p compared with 136.4p a year ago and as a result most spot bacon was traded in the 139p region, although some sellers who faces did not fit were being offered prices as low as 135p earlier on today.

Contract base prices also moved up with the DAPP and there were reports of very few unsold pigs by the close of trading on Friday.

Gilts and lighter weights continue to earn useful premiums and are worth in some cases 6 – 8p ahead of spot.

Despite reports that the UK economy is almost skint and is on a par with Greece (but not Zimbabwe yet), the £ has remained mysteriously stable with the result that the € closed worth 87.6p compared with 86.9p a week ago.

Although EU mainland cull sow processors are reporting prices at “stand on” levels because their numbers also seem to be dwindling, by the end of the day a couple of pence had been put into most quotes and very few reports of sows trading at less than 100p with modest premiums still available for larger numbers.

The weaner market continues to reflect an upcoming shortage of UK pigs in the system with the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average of £52.10/head, but any sellers with larger numbers of weaners to sell will have no problem finding homes for them.

Still plenty of encouragement on the feed price front with ex farm feed wheat now quoted at £93.50 per tonne and in the words of a certain pop song “reasons to be cheerful”.

12^th February 2010  

Although one or two spot traders were suggesting during the week that they had too many pigs on their hooks and prices would be down, as it turned out nothing resembling the St Valentines Day massacre took place on the pig trading floor today and contract prices were if anything a tad firmer with the DAPP rising from 140.01p to 140.38p and the Tulip base price up by a full penny to 142p. 

As a result it was difficult for spot buyers to attract many pigs away from contract because the trend seems to be for fewer and fewer pigs to be sold on the more volatile spot market plus the second cold snap is reducing growth rates, so very few pigs were left unsold on Friday night. 

Spot bacon tended to be traded in the 138p – 140p range, but lighter weights and gilts are attracting reasonable premiums of 4 – 8p/kg. 

A glance in the diary however reveals a very different picture 12 months ago when the DAPP was worth 5.41p less than it is today and spot quotes were 5p higher. 

After several weeks in the doldrums the cull sow market moved ahead again which a benchmark base price of circa 100p and no need for sellers to accept less than this, except for small numbers or on a collected basis. 

A strong weaner market continues to reflect a combination of a shortage of numbers in the system due to infertility and losses caused on outdoor units by the recent very hard weather conditions as well as optimism over finished pig prices in three months time. 

The AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average has now risen to £51.67/head with reports of 7kg pigs being traded in the £38/head region, but still very much a seller’s market and for those who are prepared to hold their nerve and not blink, prices ahead of this can be obtained. 

One feature that may unsettle the markets in the weeks ahead are reports of the potential weakness of the € if the Greek economy does not recover from its sickbed and other neighbouring EU countries follow suit. 

Although the € closed on Friday worth 86.9p which is far from disaster, this time last year it was worth 89.1p and any further falls would make those dreaded imports even cheaper and could take the edge off demand for cull sows.

5^th February 2010  

Demand for pigs today has proved to be rather like the weather…….changeable.

Although contract prices have moved ahead helped by the DAPP now hitting the 140.01p threshold (which is its highest point since last November), spot bidders were less enthusiastic with the commodity end of the market still suffering from cost cutting imports, although Freedom Foods, regional and outdoor born pigs are still relatively easy to sell. 

As a result spot bacon quotes were in a fairly wide price range with some of the coldest bidders opening at 134 – 136p, but by the end of the day price reports of around 138p were being obtained, with small premiums in places. 

Pigmeat is still extremely good value when compared with lamb at over £4 per kg d/wt and beef at circa 285p per kg d/wt. 

Retailers large and small are however commenting on rather slack demand throughout the whole of the pigmeat sector with legs particularly hard to shift, but this is often the trend in February when the post Christmas financial hangover hits people’s pockets. 

A brighter note today was sounded in the cull sow market due to two of the largest German sow processors deciding to have their own version of World War III on the competition front and lifting bids for sows by 2 – 4p across the board. 

This price revival is long overdue, especially bearing in mind that this time last year cull sows were worth circa 116p/kg. 

Generally however cull sow prices were in the 94 – 96p bracket with the higher end quotes for large loads and also depending if quoted prices were flat rate or weight related. 

The weaner market remains strong and the AHDB 30kg ex farm average has continued to improve and now stands at £51.23/head. 

The recent cold weather has played havoc with production numbers and will continue to do so as far as conception rates are concerned with the result that weaners will continue to be short and something of a seller’s market has already emerged. 

Despite the slight wobbles seen on the spot market today, most producers are looking forward to the spring/summer on an optimistic note and the final bit of the jigsaw will be for the € to gain some value, but it still remains almost becalmed worth 87.1p.

29^th January 2010 

 As expected demand in the spot market seems to have steadied and some of the smaller fresh meat abattoirs were less keen on pigs than the large mainly contract plants supplying the supermarket trade. 

As a result spot bacon quotes tended to be in the 138 – 140p region, although some opening bids in the 136p region were made to those less fortunate producers who did not have a regular homes for their pigs. 

There is currently very little of a premium for lighter weights and it is clear that demand is being led at the bacon end of the trade, which is normal for this time of year. 

A glance at the calendar however reveals we are almost into February and by the end of the month prices normally start to rise.  At least producers will lose less in February as it is a shorter month! 

The ongoing problem affecting prices is the relative cheapness of imported pigmeat with reports of Belgium carcasses coming over ex head and feet at less than 140p, which certainly makes it difficult for UK sellers to compete at the commodity rather than the higher welfare end of the market.  Nothing good apart from beer and chocolate seems to come from Belgium. 

The DAPP nudged up a shade and now stands at 138.97p which is 7.5p up on its position a year ago and with wheat being quoted at not much more than £90/tonne ex farm, this is a pleasant change for January 2009 when sellers were looking for £111/tonne. 

Although EU mainland cull sow prices seemed to have levelled after falling almost continuously since the last summer, unfortunately a further mysterious rise in the value of the £ is working against us and the € closed on Friday worth 86.6p compared with almost 90p at the start of 2010. 

On the plus side however with more stable EU prices and a shortage of cull sow numbers on this side of the Channel, most buyers were operating in “stand on” mode with quotes in the 92 – 94p range, but an odd copper or two extra for larger loads. 

The weaner market remains the brightest sector of the trade with the AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average continuing to rise and now standing at £51.02/head with buyers in a reasonably confident mood as far as finished pig prices 12 weeks ahead are concerned. 

If only the £ could lose some value we could see a rally in domestic prices with fairly widespread reports of numbers remaining on the tight side stretching back to infertility problems last summer, as well as the problems caused by the recent cold weather which seems to be returning.

22^nd January 2010  

Something of a two tier trade today with demand led by the larger abattoirs who are significant suppliers to the supermarket trade, with the smaller fresh meat wholesalers claiming that pigs were harder to shift with shorter queues in butcher shops and consumers probably counting their pennies now that their post Christmas credit cards have come home to roost.

As a result spot bacon quotes from some of the larger players were in the 140p region with a copper or two more in places where they were short of stock, but some of the smaller players were trying to buy at less than this figure, although by the end of the day most pigs were at or close to 140p but with significant premiums available for lighter weights and gilts. 

Contract and spot prices are now almost level pegging with DAPP plus 4p working out at 142.7p, but a deafening silence from those buyers who until recently were complaining that the DAPP was “unrealistic”. 

The most negative factor facing the market at the moment is the strength of the £, especially mid week which drove the € to below 87p, but this has since recovered to close on Friday worth 87.7p, but still down from its seven day fix of 88.4p the previous week. 

Meat traders and smaller wholesalers are also commenting on larger volumes of Spanish and Belgium carcasses that are challenging the home market at a bargain basement 132p/kg delivered, which after slaughtering costs are 15p cheaper than their UK counterparts. 

Notwithstanding this however thanks to the hard work put in by the NPA and BPEX, retailers are becoming much more aware of the need to increase the proportions of welfare friendly UK pigmeat with excellent backing for the domestic product from Waitrose, M&S, Morrisons (who are expanding their kill), the Co-Op and Somerfields to name but a few. 

European pig farmers are receiving in the region of 110 – 115p/kg for their pigs, which makes them a potent threat in the market place and any recovery in the value of the € would bring smiles to UK sellers’ faces. 

The cull sow market remains a ready barometer of exchange rates as well as European pigmeat prices which once again lost ground mainly due to the fall in the € with quotes as low as 90p heard for small lots of sows, but mainstay bids tended to be in the 93 – 95p range. 

There is however a growing shortage of UK finished pigs ahead and this is further flagged up by very tight availability with falling weaner supplies and rising demand and as a result the AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average has now risen above the £50/head threshold to £50.40/head with premiums available for large bunches from known sources. 

Another shaft of sunlight emerged in the commodity sector where feed wheat prices have eased significantly with the latest ex farm feed wheat quotes as low as £93/tonne and providing additional opportunities for forward thinking pig producers to lock into feed futures at a fairly low level while large holdover stocks are available.

15^th January 2010  

No fireworks, but a very satisfactory trading day at a time of year that sellers normally dread. With the DAPP holding up well at 138.29p (compared with 130.5p a year ago) the stage is set for firm demand this spring. 

Probably the only fly in the oinkment is in the currency market where the £ has mysteriously gained further in value with the € traded on Friday worth 88.4p compared with 89.6p a week ago and a whopping 94.4p in the third week of January 2009. 

As a result cheap imports are posing more of a threat and reports are already being received of Spanish carcass meat hitting the UK markets at a significant discount. Some of the smaller fresh meat wholesalers were also complaining the trade was slow and as a result there was very little price differentiation between the weight ranges. 

Most spot bacon quotes from the bigger boys were at 140p or more and very few cases of pigs being sold at under this. Cull sow prices have yet to wake up from their Christmas slumber and are over 20p behind their level a year ago, not helped by the recent strength of the £. 

Although the recent Artic weather has slowed down the flow of culls especially from outdoor units, now that the thaw has arrived supplies are getting back to more normal levels with most export abattoirs holding their prices at “stand on” levels with 95p an almost universal benchmark price with the usual premiums available in some quarters for bigger loads.  

The weaner market on the other hand is continuing to improve reflecting sharp falls in availability due to infertility problems last autumn as well as additional losses caused by the recent cold weather. 

Looking ahead conception rates will also have been challenged especially on outdoor units and all signs are that there is going to be something of a “black hole” in the weaner supply chain in the months ahead. Although the AHDB 30kg weaner average is generally slow to react, this has now risen to £49.85/head with further rises in the pipeline especially as the DAPP starts to rise. 

The pigmeat/feed price equation is also looking fairly good at present with reports of fairly high 2009 stocks of feed wheat still on farms and ex farm prices at only £100/tonne and representing good value to the pig industry as a whole. 

If the current cold weather continues there is a risk that the value of straw will exceed the price of grain on a per tonne basis!

8^th January 2010  

Although most pig farmers, especially those with outdoor units, are continuing to struggle with the Artic weather conditions which are playing havoc with water supplies, conception rates (who wants to make love outdoors in this weather?) and pre-weaning mortality, the current icy cloud has had something of a silver lining as far as prices are concerned. 

For the first time since June spot quotes have nudged ahead of the DAPP which eased a shade this week to close at 138.28p, but all the  clever talk is that from next week on the DAPP should start to rise reflecting better spot demand.

With lamb trading at up to 450p/kg deadweight and cattle nudging the 300p mark, pork is even more of a bargain buy with deadweight quotes in the 140p region, which is only what it was worth at the end of January last year so plenty of scope for further price rises in the months ahead. 

Although some spot buyers opened their quotes at around 136p, those who were short of pigs had to keep moving upward with the result that by the end of the day quotes tended to be in the 138 – 142p range according to specification. 

The cold snap is already having an effect on the supply chain in the future.  This will become much more apparent as we move into the spring when supply shortages coincide with rising retail demand. 

Imports however are posing more of a threat to the UK market with the European pig industry in very much a glass half empty rather than a glass half full mode. 

With the £ also retaining some of its recent strength and the € closing worth 89.6p, a rising level of imports may continue to undermine the UK market to some extent, although demand for Freedom Food and outdoor born high welfare UK pigs remains strong. 

The cull sow market continues to provide a more accurate barometer of EU mainland pigmeat prices as a whole with a universal but positive stand on being quoted today with weather related shortages avoiding any further drops in cull sow prices, which have slid a long way from their value of 115p in late August to around 95p today. 

Because of the difficult traveling conditions, producers with large numbers of sows were able to obtain premiums of several coppers above this level, but this position may be reversed when/if the thaw appears.

Weaner prices are continuing to harden with the AHDB 30kg ex farm average now quoted at £49.42/head and premiums for high health jabbed/tail docked bunches. 

With very few finished pigs being rolled or spare supplies in the system, it looks as though (for once) January will remain more of a seller’s market than the usual post Christmas bargain basement sale and demand normally starts to improve once we get into February, which will hopefully be the case again this year.

31^st December 2009 

Pig traders had to remember that Friday came on Thursday this week due to the New Years Day hangover holiday, but if today’s prices are a sign of things to come, roll on 2010! 

A recovery in the value of the DAPP provided the first indication that prices might be on the turn for the first time since the end of July when the DAPP stood at 155.57p and has slipped all the way down to 138.5p, but the latest quotation saw the DAPP rising a shade to 138.77p. 

This upward movement was however multiplied by over twenty fold in the spot market where bids had improved by up to 6p/kg in some quarters.

It is always a good sign for sellers when buyers start sniffing around mid-week and bids of around 134p were available on Tuesday/Wednesday, but by Thursday some outlets were prepared to pay a further 2 – 3p above this, although in some cases on a much tighter spec, but average quotes in the region of 136p were available by Thursday afternoon. 

Some processors put the rise down to buyers filling their cupboards after the Christmas/New Year break and commented that once adequate supplies were back in the system we could see prices level out or even ease back again, but hopefully the latter will not be the case.

Lighter weight pigs are also continuing to earn a useful premium from high street retail outlets with cutters quoted at 140p plus. 

A glance across the Channel however reveals a somewhat different trading picture with most EU pig prices still under pressure where better demand has yet to kick in. 

The import/export balance has not been helped by a recent recovery in the value of the £, which means that the € is now only worth 88.8p compared with 90p at Christmas and a whopping 96p at the start of 2009. 

As expected cull sow prices have remained at similar levels and although one or two very low prices in the 90 – 93p/kg region were quoted, now that European cull sow processors are looking for bigger numbers even if they are not prepared to pay more money, this meant that sellers with larger loads were able to obtain prices of 95p plus from some outlets. 

The weaner market remains relatively buoyant perhaps signalling better times to come for finished pigs in the spring, although no AHDB price is quoted as they had all gone home early today. 

As far as the pig industry is concerned, my crystal balls are revealing a reasonably positive picture for 2010, but we must never forget that when compared with beef and lamb, pork is still an extraordinary bargain and if only we could persuade some of the other larger retailers (they know who they are) to provide better support for the UK welfare friendly product, we could look forward to a reasonably sustainable future at a time when major reinvestment is needed in many of our worn-out pig units.  The same applies to many of the people who run them as well. 

24^th December 2009 

All in all it has been a good year for the UK pig industry which was greatly helped by the Jamie Oliver effect earlier this year with the DAPP opening at 131.23p to peak at 155.57p in mid July, although this has now slipped back to 138.5p. 

For most of the year it has been more of a sellers’ market than the reverse and if the spring/early summer trend is repeated in 2010 the industry should remain in the black for the second year running, but it is always dangerous to count piglets before they are farrowed! 

Contrary to the normal pattern spot sellers had a relatively easy trading day and despite two short weeks ahead, supply and demand seem to be in almost perfect harmony for once.

As a result although one or two spot sellers earlier in the week took 128p for bacon, those with stronger nerves were able to haggle this up to 130p (and more in places) by Thursday. 

Because of the holiday period there was much less activity in the cull sow market with slaughter throughput being cut by more than 50% during the pre and post Christmas trading weeks.  With values now down in the mid 90p region, this is a sobering wake up call reflecting much lower pigmeat prices throughout the EU mainland, which may mean we have to face yet more cheap imports undercutting the UK pigmeat market in the New Year. 

The € has (unfortunately) lost a little ground over the year and peaked at 96p at the start of 2009 and although there was some talk of the € hitting parity with the £, this failed to materialise but it closed on Thursday worth a very respectable 90p. 

Demand for weaners has remained firm throughout the year, although they wobbled a little in the early autumn in line with falling finished pig returns, but looking ahead there seem to be more buyers than sellers in the market which is another positive note and the £50 weaner should be on the menu by the New Year. 

This pig farmer and his wife were sitting down together one evening when she remarked that they had been married for almost 50 years and why not throw a party for all their friends and relations, kill a pig and have a barbeque.  The farmer mulled this over for a while and said he was happy to go along with most of her plans but felt it was a bit unfair for the pig to take the blame for something that had happened 50 years ago! 

Another pig farmer was reflecting on his married life and remarked that he had lost his virginity as a young agricultural student when he was 18, but found it again after he got married! Boom Boom!!  

Happy Christmas and a profitable New Year to all my readers

(whoever you may be)

18^th December 2009 

Most pig sellers sighed with relief this evening with virtually every pig sold and no signs of the “Christmas rollover” that we often have to face. 

Although the DAPP moved marginally downwards and now stands at 138.82p, no further significant falls are on the horizon and this certainly compares very favourably with its value of 131.23p at the start of the year. 

Most spot buyers opened on Friday suggesting prices would a “positive stand on”, but by mid morning the signs of demand nudging ahead of supply started to emerge with the result that canny sellers were able to obtain a copper or two more later in the day.

As a result the spot bacon base price was firm at 129p with more money available for higher welfare or lighter weight pigs.   

But the picture in Europe is far less rosy, mainly due to much cheaper non-EU imports from Canada, the US and Brazil undercutting EU prices. 

This was clearly flagged up in the cull sow market where due to a combination of poor European demand and the short week ahead, cull sows proved to be very hard to shift with demand matching the weather (i.e. cold) and bids in the 94 – 96p range were available for those fortunate enough to find space, but in the low 90’s from some outlets who already had more sows than they were looking for.

Cull sow prices have also not been helped by the recent improvement in the value of the £ with the € closing at 88.8p today compared with 90.5p a week ago.  Why anyone should have much confidence in the UK economy with the present clowns running the circus is a mystery to me? 

On a brighter note the weaner market is continuing to reflect increasing optimism for pig prices this spring and although many of us have made the mistake of backing horses that then either failed to start, fell or worse, on this occasion hopefully their optimism will not be misplaced. 

As a result the AHDB 30kg ex farm weaner average is continuing to recover and now stands at £48.81/head, although there are several reports of 30kg weaners being traded in the £50/head region according to quality.

Although we have not gone out on a particularly high note this year, at these levels producers can make money but Europe remains a threat, which is why the industry as a whole needs to continue to stress the high welfare and overall quality of UK pigmeat. 

You may have noticed quite a number of pig weathervanes are springing up on farms, but one feature they often have is that the pig’s nose seems to be pointing in the direction of the feed bin rather than the wind!

11^th December 2009 

“No worse and better in places” was the general comment heard in the pig market today and although the DAPP took a very slight downward turn and now stands at 139.08p, this is almost 9p better than it’s value at the start of the 2009. 

Some of the smaller fresh meat wholesalers reported better demand in the run up to Christmas and although these buyers do not account for a particularly large number of pigs, it is always good to hear of premiums being paid by these specialist outlets. 

The spot bacon base price remains circa 128p, but with premiums available for lighter weights and Freedom Food pigs. 

Lighter cutters are also attracting more interest and are being purchased at 4 – 7p above equivalent bacon quotes.

Despite the soaring level of UK debt and “call me Darling’s” pre-budget announcements flagging up more pain than gain in the months ahead, the value of the £ has held at recent levels and the € remains worth 90.5p.

The cull sow market however took a very sharp downward turn this week with most sows trading in the 94 – 97p range according to specification and load size.

This was due to a combination of larger numbers available to avoid keeping and feeding culls over the Christmas period.  Most of the major European sow meat processors have enough product to meet their needs for Christmas having cut orders sharply until consumer demand for processed cull sow products picks up in the New Year. 

Further evidence that pig prices should rise in the spring has been provided in the weaner market where there are more buyers than sellers and although this has yet to be fully reflected in the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm price of £48.25/head, reports are being received of premiums of £1 to £2 per head being paid for large lots, but most buyers are now insisting weaners are given Circoflex rather than the universal Circovac sow vaccine. 

27^th November 2009 

Although the DAPP took another downward step and now stands at 139.16p spot prices generally held at “stand on” levels, although there are still some fairly wide variations between different bidders. 

There were very few cases of spot pigs being sold for less than 126p, although one or two buyers were suggesting that that was what they would like to pay early on Friday morning, but the general run of prices tended to be between 127p and 129p, although premiums of 2 – 4p were available for niche jobs, gilts and the like. 

While there were no signs of any significant numbers of pigs being rolled, it would be unfortunate if demand slipped in the crucial run up to Christmas, but providing the cold weather continues and the € holds at current levels closing on Friday worth 90.7p, we should see it through to the Festive Season without receiving too much punishment on the price front, i.e. Christmas is a time for taking not just giving. 

European pigmeat prices have remained reasonably stable, but they are still at much lower levels than in the UK with the average EU producer price at circa 117p, which is a significant discount when compared with comparable prices on this side of the Channel. 

As a result cull sow prices have barely held at recent levels with some reports of a penny or two being clipped off recent quotes also allowing for the fact that many of the big German cull sow processors have now got enough product in the system for Christmas and are buying reduced quantities for January when retail demand is normally easier. 

A fairly wide range of prices were quoted by the three major cull sow export abattoirs with smaller lots worth no more than 102 – 105p, but premiums of 2 – 4p available for larger loads. 

Weaner prices appear to have stabilised with some buyers taking a slightly longer term view and hoping that finished pig returns will have started to rise by the time we move into February/March next year and the AHDB 30kg ex farm average is currently holding at £48.20/head, although this still represents a significant drop when compared with six months ago. 

Members of the UK pig industry had to leave their trading desks, livestock trucks and farms early today to pay a final tribute to Ray Pilgrim, whose funeral took place on Friday, but the church was full and fitting tributes were made by Richard Doel of AQM and Ray’s nephew Craig Lovelace.  It was sad to say goodbye to one of the industries’ great characters taken at the comparatively early age of 63, which is a bit of a worry as according to my wife I was also born later in the same year!

20^th NOVEMBER 2009  

Although in some areas small rises in spot prices were recorded, the general sentiment was more of a “stand on” nature reflecting the relatively static DAPP which now stands at 140.59p, but still well up on its value of 132.75p a year ago. Something of a north/south divide opened up in connection with pig prices today with more of a sellers market south of Watford than north. 

It will be unfortunate if abattoirs are unable to take full numbers in the key weeks building up to Christmas, but the return of colder weather could help on this front by slowing down growth rates. If pig prices could be persuaded to follow the upward track seen in the sheep market recently where liveweight prices have gone up by 20p/kg in the last 14 days (£8/sheep), pig producers will also feel that Christmas had arrived early. With no reports of spot bacon being traded at less than 125p and most prices circa 127p with lighter weights attracting more interest, spot sellers had a slightly easier ride than they did a few weeks ago. 

Cull sow prices continue to be held up by a lack of numbers on this side of the Channel rather than better prices in Europe and the € has maintained its value over the past 7 days closing on Friday worth a fraction under 90p. Export sow abattoirs were generally offering in the 106 – 108p range on a delivered basis, but still some fairly wide variations according to load size and specification. 

Weaner prices have followed the spot finished pig market with very little variation over the past 7 days with the 30kg AHDB ex farm average holding at £48.29/head. Reports of financial problems being faced by some of the smaller wholesalers (not abattoirs) are continuing to circulate in the market, but are in stark contrast with recent financial results announced by Tulip and Cranswick both of whom are recording significant profits, but really needs to be seen throughput the whole supply chain to allow producers to re-invest in what are fast becoming worn out pig units with in many cases worn out pig farmers running them. 

13^th NOVEMBER 2009  

As predicted the recent slide in spot pig values has levelled out and although there was very little evidence of buyers paying much more, no cases were reported of any further drops with spot prices in the 125 – 129p range according to specification with a copper or two more available for Freedom Food pigs or lighter weights. The DAPP has continued its relentless downward track and now stands at 140.83p, which is 15p down (£12/pig) compared with its value last July. 

The DAPP as a pricing mechanism remains a talking point within the industry and although BPEX Director Mick Sloyan restated that the DAPP is intended to provide a historical benchmark of prices paid and is not designed to be used for price setting, we all know this is not the case with most finished pigs and weaner contracts having a significant DAPP element and the same also applies to some pig unit rents and bonus payments. One way to defeat claims by abattoirs that the DAPP is not representative is for more of them to contribute and it is good to note that Gills of Wolverhampton have now joined and hopefully others will follow perhaps leading to a DAPP sample of formula and weekly priced pigs.  

A recent bottoming out of pig prices in Europe has also helped to put trading onto a slightly firmer note, although anxious glances at the calendar reveal that there are now only 4 clear trading weeks (20 slaughtering days) between now and the Christmas shutdown. The message remains the same and producers are advised to keep on top of their pigs and weights as much as possible, although from time to time there can be a last minute rally in the last few days before Christmas, but this is something of a risky bet in horse racing terms. 

The € has also eased slightly in value which is not helping as far as imports are concerned and closed on Friday worth 89.3p, down a gnat’s whisker compared with a week ago. Cull sow prices were generally at “stand on” levels with average quotes remaining in the 105 – 108p range, but numbers still on the tight side; hence UK prices are better than equivalent EU net values. Some stability is also returning to the weaner market where the latest 30kg AHDB average is quoted at £48.40/head and a few more buyers are emerging in the market, especially as far as 7kg pigs are concerned which will not hit the finishing pig market until February/March when prices normally start to rise. 

On a more sombre note the pig industry lost two “characters” this week with the passing of John Clarke (The Woolpit Whiff) on Tuesday and the sudden death of Ray Pilgrim on, of all days Friday 13^th. John was well known as one of the largest swill feeders in the country until the May 2001 waste feed ban shut down his pig operation, but carried on rendering in the face of all sorts of local opposition, judicial reviews, High Court cases and the like, despite a severe and progressive disability. Ray Pilgrim will be remembered as a fearless but fair abattoir operator who probably knew more about the European meat trade than the rest of us put together who worked from dawn to dusk and his presence will be sadly missed.   

6^th NOVEMBER 2009  

Today’s unwelcome news that Vion are intending to serve notice on all pig supply contracts may not have been a total surprise, but it still served to underline some fairly drastic restructuring ahead as far as DAPP related pig contracts are concerned. 

Since Tulip’s earlier exit from the DAPP compilation, the other two major contributors to the DAPP are Cranswick and Vion. As a result because the majority of the pigs they procure are on DAPP related contracts, the DAPP Index Price has been very slow to move (up as well as down). 

In March earlier this year the DAPP was 141p compared with spot prices of 153p, whereas now we have the DAPP at 142.72p and spot as low as 125p. Unless a wider sample of prices are included in the DAPP, there will be periods when either buyers or sellers are unhappy with its relationship with the spot market. 

One way to remedy this is for the MLC and BPEX to lobby the abattoir industry asking for a larger number to supply price data which should then more accurately reflect the market as a whole including lighter weight cutters through to heavy bacon. The FTSE Share Index includes all the 100 top shares and not just a small proportion and the same logic should be extended in this case with the top (say) 15 pig abattoirs by throughput all making a contribution leading to a more accurate and realistic DAPP. 

In the short term the DAPP is unlikely to collapse, but will probably continue to drift down a penny or two a week until former contract pigs hit the spot market. By that time we may be into the March/April period when prices normally recover and this will be less of a problem, but for any former contract producer forced into the spot market during the November-February period, this could prove to be a very unhappy and expensive Christmas present. 

Trading today was split into two distinct camps with the DAPP now standing at 142.72p; contract sellers will probably receive up to 20p/kg more than their spot counterparts where 125p proved to be an almost universal spot bacon base price. The challenges faced by the EU pigmeat market continue to be reflected by falling cull sow values with German carcasses worth little more than €1.25 (£1.10) before slaughtering costs are taken into account. UK cull sow quotes continue to fall within a fairly wide range with quotes as low as 103p heard in some quarters, but a fair market average would be within the 105 – 108p range. 

As a result of the uncertain future facing finished pig prices 2 to 3 months ahead, weaner prices are continuing to slide with the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm quote at £48.87/head, but numbers remain on the tight side which has helped to prevent this price falling further. 

All in all another challenging time for the pig industry, although colder weather and better retail demand could turn things around in the run up to Christmas, especially if this is combined with producers continuing to pull forward lighter weights. 

A glance at most pig price graphs indicates that once we make it to the spring prices normally recover, but many producers will be feeling that unless they receive some positive news on the price front soon, they may be tempted to either pack up or put any reinvestment plans on hold.

30^th OCTOBER 2009  

Although sellers reported that they were able to place most of their pigs next week, space remains fairly tight and spot sellers were in many cases forced to accept lower bids rather than face the risk of rising weights and probes in the run up to Christmas. 

The DAPP has slipped again to 144.07p, but still looks a much better bet than the spot market where bids of almost 20p below this were heard in some quarters. Spot prices for heavy bacon on a 14 probe of circa 125p were available, but on a tighter spec quotes tended to be between 127 – 130p. 

Reports of more interest from the smaller fresh meat wholesalers provided one glimmer of light on an otherwise rather unremarkable trading day and there may be opportunities for producers to capitalise on the better prices available in the market for lighter pigs in the run up to Christmas where premiums of between 4 – 8p/kg are available. 

A recent slip in the value of the € which closed on Friday worth 89.5p compared with 91.8p a week ago has done nothing to help cull sow values which saw export spec prices falling with bids in the 108 – 110p range. 

Something of a two tier trade has developed in the weaner market where 7kg piglets (which will not hit the finished pig market for another 4 – 5 months) remain in demand and selling relatively well, but the shorter term prospects for 30kg weaners are affecting this sector where prices continue to ease and the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm average weaner price is now quoted at £49.28/head, but signs of further drops are in the pipeline. 

Feed prices continue to be influenced by the currency markets with ex farm feed wheat quotes of circa £94/tonne and delivered prices of just above £100/tonne. With only 36 slaughtering days left until Christmas, the advice to producers is to keep on top of their pigs (rather than underneath them), but the oncoming cold snap may help to slow down growth rates and improve retail demand to prevent any further price deterioration in this sector.   

Click on the links below to see details of indoor pig equipment including 6 bulk bins for sale by tender for Heveningham Hall Estate near Halesworth in Suffolk.  

www.petercrichton.co.uk/images/PDF/st.pdf

www.petercrichton.co.uk/images/PDF/ht.pdf                            

23^rd OCTOBER 2009  

The queue of unsold spot pigs may be getting slightly shorter due to the major efforts made by some of the more helpful abattoirs out there who were prepared to up their kills and still pay a reasonably fair price (you know who you are). 

Although we are far from out of the woods, the onset of colder weather should check growth rates and help to stimulate retail demand coupled with a mini rally in the value of the € which closed on Friday worth 91.8p compared with 90p earlier on the week. 

Although the DAPP is likely to follow its downward track in the weeks ahead and dropped this week by just over 2p to 145.49p, the plain facts are that until the gap narrows between UK and mainland EU pig prices imports will continue to undercut the domestic market hitting UK supplies in the run up to Christmas. As a result most spot bacon was traded in the 130 – 136p range according to specification, but reports were received of some other opportunist buyers offering as low as 120p at the start of business and 126p later on. 

Lighter weight pigs continue to earn a modest premium and selling at slightly lower weights represents a sensible option for producers to avoid having too many heavy pigs round their necks at Christmas. EU mainland pigmeat prices remain under pressure and this is reflected by slightly easier quotes in the cull sow market, although these remain relatively buoyant due to the three major export abattoirs all looking to maintain their volumes. 

Cull sow quotes remain in a fairly narrow range with a benchmark price of 110p with the usual premiums available for larger loads, but producers are advised to check if bids received are on a flat rate or weight related basis and to compare killing out percentages. 

The weaner market continues to reflect something of a two tier trade with a relatively firm demand for 7kg pigs because these will not hit the market as finishers for another 4 – 6 months, whereas 30kg weaners will be coming up during the festive period when we as we all know Christmas is time for giving (cheap pigs) and receiving (a poorer price). 

One of the downsides of the weakness of sterling is filtering through to the grain markets where prices have generally nudged upwards with ex farm feed wheat now quoted at circa £94/tonne, but still a “buy” at these levels.

Click on the links below to see details of indoor pig equipment including 6 bulk bins for sale by tender for Heveningham Hall Estate near Halesworth in Suffolk and a 19’ Morgan Hydralift pig trailer with canopy and internal gates for sale near Bury St Edmunds, offers invited over £4,250.  

16th OCTOBER 2009 

We are now starting to pay the price for the halcyon days of spring and early summer when UK pig prices soared above European levels. 

Unfortunately the higher they are the harder they fall and by August some retailers were realising that if they kept promoting the UK product in the face of much cheaper imports their margins would shrink and they could make even more money by switching to larger supplies of imports at the expense of UK producers. 

The situation we are now faced with is that because of reduced retail orders UK abattoirs are cutting back on pig numbers leaving a larger surplus of spot pigs looking for homes at a time of year when supplies also tend to increase. The picture may not however be as bleak as this because several of the larger marketing groups are reporting that their forward forecasts are indicating a reduction in supplies when we enter November and if this is coupled with the colder weather, this could slow down growth rates and stimulate retail demand. 

When this happens this should help to arrest the falling DAPP, which a year ago was quoted at 136.51p almost neck and neck with spot rather than the 15p differential that now exists. Spot bacon today was traded at a base price of circa 130p and other outlets were prepared to pay a copper or two more than this, but space still remains very tight. 

Contract sellers tied to the DAPP still have a base price of 147.54p as a safety net. Lighter cutter weight pigs continue to sell marginally better and with Christmas approaching producers are advised to keep on top of their numbers and perhaps start selling some lighter weights to avoid another bottleneck over the Festive period. A marginal improvement in the value of the £ has done nothing to help on the trading front which saw the € slip from 92.6p a week ago to 91.0p on Friday, but still well ahead of earlier levels. 

Reports of difficult trading conditions in the European mainland pig market has also put more downward pressure on UK cull sow quotes which have today been generally between 108p and 113p, but a general shortage of slaughter numbers has kept this market slightly firmer than expected. 

Weaner prices are continuing to head south with the latest AHDB 30kg ex farm quote now standing at £50.32/head down by almost £7 since June. Providing feed prices stay at current levels there is still a margin for weaner buyers and sellers alike. 

We may however have to wait until the early spring next year before any significant rally is seen in the finished pig market, but what most sellers are hoping for is a period of stability to settle the market down rather than seeing further fluctuations between now and the end of the year.